The Incoming Blue Hurricane
Midterms are almost always bad for the incumbent party. The last time the House was allied with a president after a midterm was 2002. The time before that was 1978. It is worth noting that Trump is not a particularly popular president, the Republican House majority is not particularly large, and the economy is not doing particularly well. In fact, the only particular features of the 2026 election appear to be conditions for a perfect Democratic storm.
Nowhere are the signs of a blue wave more clear than in the behavior of Republican politicians. All across the country they are trying to lock down formerly competitive congressional districts with undemocratic gerrymandering. As their tiny House majority hangs by a thread, they are racing to draw as many safe Republican districts as possible. However, they will not get to 218 before the November election, and they know it. At least 38 House Republicans are headed for the exits, even excluding those who have died, lost primaries, or resigned in disgrace. For this election, at least, they are failing to gerrymander as fast as their popularity is plummeting. With the generic ballot getting bluer by the day, the House of Representatives looks safely Democratic.
Thankfully, the blue hurricane appears unlikely to stop at the doors of the House. With a relatively fair senate map (in the context of the R-skewed Senate), Democrats have a multitude of pickup opportunities. Strong candidates have put everywhere from North Carolina to Nebraska into play, and Republicans are busy eating their own, having ousted 2 senators in primaries this cycle alone.
In Nebraska, a traditionally red state, independent Dan Osborn is making a strong challenge for the senate seat of incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts. Osborn lost by less than 7 percentage points against Deb Fischer, Nebraska’s senior senator, in the R-leaning year of 2024. It is easy to see why this race would be competitive in 2026. In fact, all public polling of the race shows Osborn close with or leading Ricketts. While all these polls were sponsored by Democrats, it is telling that Republicans have not released any of their own. Furthermore, Trump’s tariff bonanza has certainly harmed the Nebraska agricultural industry, and according to Nebraska Public Media, the number of farmers defaulting on their bank loans is slowly, but surely, increasing. If there was a year for a Democratic ally to win in Nebraska, it would be this year, and if there was such a candidate, it would be Dan Osborn.
In nearby Iowa, the senate race is looking even rosier. Despite Republicans nominating a strong candidate in Ashley Hinson, Josh Turek, a popular Democratic state legislator, is tied in non-partisan polling in the state. It is worth noting that Iowa has consistently given Democrats some of the largest special election overperformances in the country these past two years. It’s also worth noting that Turek will be sharing the ballot with Rob Sand, the elected Democratic State Auditor of Iowa and Democratic nominee for governor. We know it is possible for Democrats to win statewide in Iowa, and the party is putting its best face forward in what should be a landslide year.
Meanwhile, in both Ohio and Alaska, two deeply red states, there has been exactly one Democrat elected statewide in the past decade. In each of those states, that Democrat—Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio—is the Democratic Senate nominee. While both are challenging incumbents, it is a very blue year, and they are very strong candidates. If you look at their average overperformances, the partisan leans of their respective states, and the national environment of 2026, the numbers do not point to the Republican incumbents being reelected. This mostly remains true even when accounting for a sizable decline in support from their lack of incumbency. However, that weakness certainly gives both Republicans a shot, although that remains substantially less than Trump’s party would like in what are usually safe states. Peltola leads in most public polls of 2026, and Brown narrowly edges out his opponent in an average of recent polls.
Two other states, Maine and North Carolina, are much safer pick-ups for Democrats. North Carolina is a swing state; Democratic Senate nominee and former governor Roy Cooper has never lost an election, and it is, of course, a very blue year. As of today, there doesn’t seem much of a path to victory at all for his Republican opponent. Meanwhile, in Maine, a rather blue state, Republican Susan Collins is the foremost political gravity defier left standing in the U.S. Senate. A few weeks ago, she looked set to potentially pull off another unbelievable victory against a weak opponent. Thankfully, a different and as of yet unknown individual will be the Democratic candidate. All of the potential options appear to be at worst generic Democrats. An election that would have been close had Collins faced one of the weakest Democrats ever nominated to the U.S. Senate this century likely will not be close against a normal Democrat. According to polls, the shine is beginning to wear thin on Maine’s sixth-term-seeking senator. It has been a long and agonizing 3 decades since she was first elected on a promise to serve only 2 terms. After the overturning of Roe vs. Wade, her vote to put Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and 10 years of a Republican Party defined by a man Maine voted against 3 consecutive times, it is hard to imagine the voters giving her another pass.
Lastly, it is worth mentioning the flailing Republican attempt to pick up New Hampshire. Senator Shaheen is retiring, and Republicans saw an opportunity to run someone, anyone named Sununu. One Sununu—Former U.S. Senator John Sununu—has offered to take up the Republican mantle. It has been a long 18 years since the good people of New Hampshire first booted Sununu out of office in favor of Shaheen and an even longer 24 years since Sununu was narrowly reelected in 2002 with the aid of a criminal vote suppression scheme. Republican senators are salivating, and he has been endorsed by 31 of them. Unfortunately for Mr. Sununu, New Hampshire Democrats are set to nominate well-liked Congressman Chris Pappas, who—like most decent individuals—has never run a campaign that resorted to crime in order to win. Pappas has led every public poll of the race, likely much to the chagrin of those 31 Republican senators.
There are some other senate races that could potentially be competitive, namely longshot Democratic bids in Texas and Kansas, which could both be achievable in the best-case scenario due to strong candidates. However, despite the personability of Democrats running in those states (and the Republicans ousting their own incumbent in Texas), they are both still a bit of a stretch at this time. Republicans eyeing the open Minnesota Senate seat should have thought of that before they sent ICE to terrorize Minneapolis.
All in all, 2026 looks to be a strong Democratic year, with the party positioned to retake both the House and the Senate. A decade after it began, the Trump era of American politics appears to be arriving at the beginning of the end. We may not know what comes next, but—whatever it is—let's all hope a Democrat defines it.