The Democrats: A Direction for the Future of the Party
“It is now official, CNN projects that Donald Trump has been elected president, defeating vice president Kamala Harris and making a political comeback unlike any in Modern American Politics.”
This was it. After a months-long, desperate struggle from the Democratic Party to stave off its own electoral annihilation, what was obvious to nearly everybody watching the election had become, effectively, official. Donald John Trump, 45th President of the United States, holder of 34 felony charges, and leader of the Republican Party, had won, becoming the 47th President-Elect of the United States.
Although it was a disappointing ending to a drawn-out campaign season, the result had finally allowed Democrats to exhale and examine the result after proverbially holding their breath for a few months. After Biden’s disastrous debate against Trump in late June, the Democrats had been tossed into an insurmountable deficit that they would ultimately fail to recover from. However, against the forecasts of particularly pessimistic Democrats, there were a few bright spots to look into out of the rubble.
After a projected 4-point loss after the debate, Harris performed about as well as could be realistically hoped: she limited the damage, and only ended up losing the election by about 1.5% of the popular vote. Despite the fact that Republicans had won a trifecta in government, Harris’ recovery over Biden ended up saving Democratic candidates in key Senate races like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, where a worse presidential campaign would have very likely spelled doom for the Democrats. So, after this relatively minor loss, there was hope that Trump, through his erratic policy and ill-advised focus on tariffs, would quickly and cleanly hand the initiative back to the Democrats.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, though, this quick shift did not materialize, at least not on the scale that was expected or hoped. Despite the increasing unpopularity of Trump’s trade and economic reforms (especially his tariff policies), Democrats failed to make ground on an increasingly underwater Trump. After only eeking out a polling lead in March of 2025, it came to light that, despite how unpopular Trump was, in many cases, the Democratic Party was just as — if not more — unpopular than the Republicans. Because of this unpopularity, the Democrats would only manage about a 3-4% lead over the Republicans in the polls leading up to the November elections, a far cry from the 8-9% that they enjoyed following Trump’s first victory in 2016. It seemed that, especially through Republican gerrymandering efforts in a redistricting battle that favoured them, the Democratic Party was in real danger of losing the midterms in 2026, handing another two years of unfettered governance to Trump. Especially following the 2018 midterms, where the Democrats won by 8.6%, such a result would have been a completely crushing and humiliating loss, one that would have practically guaranteed at least Republican Senate control for the next four years.
Until the November Elections, the Democrats looked leaderless, directionless, and toothless. However, after massive victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City, it was shown that the Democratic Party still had some fight left, and it still had the strength to win in further elections in 2026. Even the loss of Aftyn Behn — a Progressive Tennessee Democrat running in a ruby-red district — was good news, as it showed a massive 11% swing to the Democrats. After the good news, the Democrats, finally, had begun showing some signs of life, and after surviving Trump’s first year in office, many of us have begun to look to the future, to see how the Democrats will solve both their issues of missing both a leader and a direction.
In this fight for the identity and for the direction the party will take in the midterms and 2028 Presidential elections, there are two dominant “tents” within the big tent Democrats that will fight it out to push the party forward. So, without further ado, let's introduce our two contenders in the political ring:
The Liberals and Moderates
The Liberal/Moderate faction of the Democratic Party has been its dominant faction for the vast majority of its modern history. Although widely thought to be dead in the water after the defeat of Kamala Harris, the victories of Spanberger and Sherill in Virginia and New Jersey have breathed new life into the Liberals. Newsom’s loud and public opposition to the Trump Administration also serves to help rejuvenate the Liberal wing of the party. As it stands, Newsom is the clear dominant figure in the Liberal Wing, with figures like Buttigieg and Shapiro also holding significant influence.
The past year has served as a revival of the Liberals in a party that largely saw them as dinosaurs of a bygone era, destined to be supplanted by the younger, other tent in the Democratic party. Philosophically, through its partial embracing of ideas like YIMBYism, which supports building more (with a focus on dense housing), free trade and markets, and abundance — a new idea popularized by Ezra Klein that focuses on affordability and state rebuilding — the Liberals have had no shortage of new ideas to add to its dynamic ideological fray. Although it is yet to be seen how the factions within factions will work out, through the previously mentioned ideas, many Liberals are coming around to the forward-focused, pragmatic policies that they now hope to propel into governance.
The Progressives and Populists
Across from the Liberal/Moderate wing of the Democratic Party stands the populists, leftists, and progressives, which I will refer to as the “Progressive” Wing, from now on. Although it has mostly been relegated to the position of “junior partner” in the Democratic coalition, in recent years (and especially since the 2016 Primary and Election), the Leftist wing has been seen as the “next big thing” in the Democratic Party, with it being seen as likely that they would eventually come to supplant their Liberal peers as the dominant faction in the party. Although having long been maligned as “election losers”, the victory of Mamdani and the overperformance of Behn has given many progressives the confidence that, to defeat the Republicans, their party stands the best chance in general elections. In terms of leadership, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), a New York City Congresswoman, has shown herself to be the strongest force guiding the progressives, with the practical aging out of its old standard-bearer, Bernie Sanders. Along with AOC, the newly elected mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, holds a strong sway over the youth movement, with the caveat that, as he was not born in the United States, he is not eligible to run for the Presidency.
The Progressives have mainly stayed true to their ideological direction, with many of them focusing on Social Progressivism and activism, reforming America’s immigration and Justice systems, and cutting down the police and military. In recent years, though, the idea of affordability has taken a strong hold over the progressive wing, as exemplified by Mamdani’s campaign against Cuomo and Sliwa, where he focused most of his campaign on bringing down prices and making life cheaper for the average consumer. Although the actual effect of their policies may be objected to by most mainstream economists, the progressive wing still maintains their efficacy and ability to use the state to make life more affordable for the people. Worth mentioning too is the populism within the progressive wing, which almost exclusively focuses on the economically leftist ideas of the progressives.
The Upcoming Battle
So, with these two wings of the Democratic Party fighting for its future, the first test is already taking place, in the primary elections of 2026, where Democratic Party members will vote to decide who will represent their party in the multitude of state-level and local elections that will take place during the midterm elections of 2026. In states like Michigan and Maine, liberals like Haley Stevens and Janet Mills face off in Senate primaries against progressives/populists like Abdul El-Sayed and Graham Platner. And in our state of California, progressives, populists, liberals, and moderates all jockey at once in hopes of gaining the favor of Democrats across the state for their runs at the governorship. Along with the big statewide races, there are loads of challenges, particularly by progressives to unseat unpopular establishment figures, that will undoubtedly be the site of drama and conflict within the Democratic Party.
Of course, however, the main battle, the king on the chessboard, the fight to become the true, legitimate head of the party, will take place in 2028, when Democrats across the nation come to vote on who will be their Presidential nominee to face off against Trump’s chosen successor (who may be Trump, who knows?). Whoever finds themselves as the nominee after what is likely to be a long, messy battle to the top will potentially hold nearly unrivaled power within the party, and will finally give the party a leader whom they can all (maybe somewhat begrudgingly) recognize as their voice on the national stage.
A Retrospective
Given the nature of primary elections, it is impossible to tell who will be in a position to make a run at the presidency from our spot in 2025. Winds can change, fortunes can break, and aspirations can shatter, just at the drop of a news article or bad quote (just ask Katie Porter what happened to her “surefire” bid for the Governor’s race). As such, it is important for us to understand that in the world of politics, nothing is sure until the 70 year old news anchor declares the race over. So, to the avid politics nerds reading this, my advice is simple: stay strapped in, and enjoy the ride.